The Ideas

It seems self-evident to many that oil resources are on the verge o f running out, that we are approaching ‘peak oil’, after which oil production will inevitably decline. ‘End of oil’ books, articles, blogs and TV shows proliferate. A complex of myths about oil has grown up that hamper us from making rational decisions about energy.

‘The Myth of the Oil Crisis’ establishes that, contrary to ‘peak oil’ arguments:

· Models used to predict ‘peak oil’ production are flawed, unscientific and have repeatedly failed in the past

· Global oil  reserves are, overall, not heavily over-stated

· There is large remaining exploration potential around the world, in OPEC countries, new frontiers and even mature non-OPEC nations

· Resources of unconventional oil—heavy oil, oil sands, gas– and coal-derived liquids, biofuels and others—are enormous, much larger than the conventional oil endowment

· Unconventional oil can be produced fast enough to replace a decline in conventional oil

· Geopolitical issues and terrorism are not an insuperable threat to world oil supplies

· If necessary, oil consumption can be reduced dramatically even while living standards continue to improve

· New technologies and sensible policies can radically reduce the environmental impact of hydrocarbons and tackle climate change



Mature oil production in the USA. Still a significant source of supply, which new technology and policies could revive.

The Myth of the Oil Crisis